Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 21.119678 23.054539 25.205751 27.799511 30.876342 34.455036 39.002289
2025-01-12 17.940655 20.391242 23.318755 27.156650 32.191563 38.791416 48.524896
2025-01-19 16.558257 19.456227 23.135548 28.336973 35.860729 47.059244 66.813275
2025-01-26 15.044051 18.073884 22.084094 28.068769 37.396572 52.828668 85.073376
2025-02-02 13.995959 17.129649 21.426797 28.154114 39.394268 60.074340 112.536440
2025-02-09 13.204500 16.420022 20.967358 28.399816 41.661284 68.852292 155.715203
2025-02-16 12.507201 15.756670 20.470971 28.465283 43.591130 78.015807 221.409898
2025-02-23 11.820575 15.038616 19.799219 28.107629 44.594245 85.679178 312.380958
2025-03-02 11.312101 14.533686 19.394201 28.132301 46.375556 96.807874 517.466705
2025-03-09 10.817929 14.008872 18.900540 27.912965 47.564625 107.315299 958.207083
2025-03-16 10.367562 13.516996 18.412133 27.627756 48.529852 118.221503 2445.104001
2025-03-23 9.970240 13.079515 17.973786 27.374825 49.516381 130.638411 43419.385421
2025-03-30 9.613155 12.688570 17.591083 27.201613 50.742087 146.571299 NaN
2025-04-06 9.210515 12.204414 17.015543 26.571548 50.592231 155.900422 NaN
2025-04-13 9.120531 12.208419 17.276807 27.704034 55.864720 211.077863 NaN
2025-04-20 8.827619 11.869315 16.909089 27.443768 56.870330 240.132831 NaN
2025-04-27 8.605974 11.633896 16.708411 27.525043 59.052233 292.086375 NaN
2025-05-04 8.421279 11.448768 16.583953 27.761154 61.906204 375.697780 NaN
2025-05-11 8.226668 11.237119 16.395233 27.823987 64.208613 482.842283 NaN
2025-05-18 7.994302 10.951959 16.051810 27.479659 64.849392 573.703081 NaN
2025-05-25 7.821255 10.758853 15.869038 27.503378 67.046173 783.865347 NaN
2025-06-01 7.631281 10.529121 15.603045 27.292197 68.208419 1036.773495 NaN
2025-06-08 7.445166 10.298786 15.323271 27.017540 69.029376 1395.379976 NaN